Figures from the latest the Plumbing and Heating Merchants Index (PHMI) for the first quarter of 2025 show an improving market.

Total value sales in Q1 2025 increased by +4.0% compared with the first three months of 2024. Volume sales were up by +5.7% while prices were -1.6% lower.  

March produced the best performance of the quarter, with value sales up +12.1% compared with March 2024. The preceding months of the first quarter had seen year-on-year monthly value sales increase by +0.7% in January and fall by -1.2% in February.  

Total value sales in Q1 2025 were +3.5% higher compared with the previous three months, October to December 2024. Volume sales increased by +3.0% while prices were +0.5% higher. 

With two more trading days in Q1 2025, however, like-for-like sales were flat at +0.2% against the last quarter of 2024. 

Total value sales in the 12 months April 2024 to March 2025 were up by +1.2% compared with the previous 12 month period. With four more trading days in the latest period, like-for-like value sales were -0.4% lower. Volume sales increased by +5.8%, while prices decreased by -4.4%. 

Mike Rigby, MD of MRA Research, which produces the report, commented: “To say it’s been a tempestuous start to the year would be a considerable understatement, as the world struggles to adapt to the rapid shifting of its foundations triggered by Trump’s volcanic tariffs onslaught. Relief that the UK has agreed a deal with the US has been short-lived as economists agree there’s little substance in it to drive growth.

"Other world leaders who have yet to sign a deal are contributing to the uncertainty and churn. For now, and the next five years at least, it’s goodbye Davos and know-where-you-stand treaties, and hello to the Godfather and an-offer-you-can’t-refuse.

“With such monumental geoeconomic headwinds, how will UK construction be affected? Even if the tariff tsunami is resolved quickly, a certain amount of disruption to supply chains and increased production costs is baked in. Given the cumulative impacts on uncertainty, I imagine consumer confidence and its effect on RMI and property will take longer to recover.

“Given the chaotic backdrop, merchant’s year-on-year March sales, and year-on-year Q1 sales are more robust than we could have expected. Admittedly, March 2024 and Q1 2024 were nothing to shout about, but month-on-month and quarter-on-quarter sales are also positive.

“Animal spirits are resilient and powerful, but confidence has taken a battering. GfK’s long-running Consumer Confidence Index decreased by four points to -23 in April. All measures were down compared to March and expectations for the general economic situation over the next 12 months fell to -37, sixteen points worse than April 2024. However, the Major Purchase Index component of the Consumer Confidence Index which correlates with larger domestic purchases and RMI projects is down two points at -19, six points better than April last year, so not all bad! Wages rising faster than prices, and more interest rate cuts to come will also provide relief for consumers.

“In practice, whether consumers postpone big purchases in 2025 or not will depend on a mix of domestic and global factors. The world feels more fragile and uncertain now than at any time since the Berlin Wall came down in 1989”.