Builders Merchants Federation's Winter 2025 Industry Forecast highlights a tough start for the new year.

A stagnant market in building materials is set to continue into 2026, according to a leading trade body’s economic forecast.

Latest market analysis from the Builders Merchants Federation does not expect to see any tangible growth until at least the second half of the year.

The announcement comes on the back of a challenging year in 2025, which saw the summer report revise its original growth prediction from 2.5% down to 1.4% following a downturn in Q3.

John Newcomb, CEO of the BMF, said: “Initially we saw a glimmer of growth in building material sales in the first six months of 2025, but the positive trend stalled and the anticipated turnaround for the third quarter of the year failed to materialise.

“Instead Q3 was heavily impacted by economic shocks, with a sharp contraction in August despite the hottest summer on record.

“This was compounded by housebuilders adopting a cautious approach ahead of the Autumn Budget, which ultimately fell short of delivering the stimulus required to reignite the housing market, as well as a fall in consumer confidence.”

The BMF’s Winter 2025 Industry Forecast utilises data from the Builders Merchants Building Index, which tracks over 88% of sales across Great Britain, providing a comprehensive view of the supply chain, covering everything from concrete and cement to bricks and roofing tiles.

Other economic indicators featured include GfK’s Consumer Confidence Barometer, the Purchasing Managers Index (S&P Global), Consumer Price Inflation, Gross Domestic Product, unemployment and pay data, as well as analysis from the Bank of England.

Newcomb added: “Looking at the year ahead, customer confidence still remains fragile.

“There’s a significant gap between what the Government has proposed and what is being achieved out on the ground.

“A jumpstart is needed to get the building sector moving and without Government intervention it is going to be difficult to move forwards.

“We need to see activity including incentives for first-time buyers, delivery of the Social and Affordable Housing Programme and more action to free up brownfield land, as well as the publication of the long-awaited Warm Homes Plan and the Future Homes Standard."