The findings of Baxi’s 2026 Installer Skills and Attitudes were that installers are better prepared for low-carbon heating, but capability is not translating into installations at the pace required.

With decarbonised heating a critical part of the UK's net zero plans, heat pumps are a path out of the country's reliance on fossil fuels. The government aims to deliver 450,000 heat pump installations annually by 2030 but, despite a year-on-year increase of 27% for heat pump sales in 2025, it is nowhere near the target.

Baxi's report, published in partnership with JTL Training, looked at the workforce, attitudes towards upskilling, training, and blockers and the results were mixed.

The report revealed that installers remain downbeat on demand, although those already fitting heat pumps are more positive. Six-in-ten installers are developing heat-pump competencies or planning to.

Yet the survey shows a widening readiness versus opportunity gap: the share already installing air source heat pumps (ASHPs) rose to 5%, but those extremely or somewhat likely to transition declined, while uncertainty and reluctance increased.

Deployment remains subdued, with MSC reporting that installations are down 17% year on year as of June 2026, with just over 25,000 in the first half.

The reduction in Boiler Upgrade Scheme funding for 2027–2030, as announced in the Autumn Budget, removes around 100,000 heat pumps from eligibility, assuming current grants remain unchanged. This indicates government acceptance of slow domestic retrofit growth, with significant volume gains now expected from new build.

Demand, not skills, is becoming the central constraint

Concerns about policy, administration, training and accreditation declined considerably in 2026. Lack of demand remained the leading barrier, with customers concerned about cost and disruption.

Slow market uptake of heat pumps combined with most respondents stating they had enough or more than enough work in gas plumbing reduces the immediate commercial pressure to diversify and embrace heat pumps. 44% of respondents said it was extremely unlikely that they would transition.

Ian Trott, Head of UK Training Solutions at Baxi, said: "The industry has done a great job of investing in training, and installers increasingly have the skills they need to install heat pumps. The next challenge is giving them the hands-on experience and confidence to put those skills into practice.

"Installers are on the front line with customers. They're the people answering questions, challenging misconceptions and giving homeowners the confidence to make the switch. If government is serious about accelerating heat pump adoption, it should be asking how it can better harness that installer network."

Moving forwards

As in 2025, installers preferred heat pumps paired with combi-boilers to heat-pump-only systems. This may reflect lower cost, less disruption and simpler installation. Among ASHP installers, greater consumer choice, including hybrids, was the leading measure identified to encourage low-carbon heating participation.

Among JTL apprentices, 83% were very or fairly optimistic about their careers. Half saw future opportunities in ASHPs, while 42% selected both hybrid systems and gas boilers. However, two thirds said political debate on net zero and energy policy made the industry's future direction difficult to understand.

Baxi's findings highlight the need to connect installer capability with consistent consumer demand. Priorities include long-term certainty for the Boiler Upgrade Scheme, lower relative electricity costs, timely and trusted Warm Homes Agency advice, and support to integrate heat-pump sales and delivery into installers' everyday operations.